Read the full article Varoufakis and Game Theory.
“The ITUC finds unacceptable that the IMF has taken a hard-line stance within the Troika, or ‘Brussels Group’, and is pressuring EU lenders not to make loan disbursements unless Greece cuts pensions such that the basic level will be €360 per month, below the subsistence level. With more than a quarter of the labour force out of work, a large share of households have come to rely on pensions as their only stable source of income and will be pushed into poverty if pensions are further reduced.”
“Given the IMF’s utterly inept performance in failing to predict the level of depression and indebtedness that its loan conditions caused, it is understandable that the Greek electorate was sceptical of Troika promises of prosperity around the corner when it elected a new government in January,” said Sharan Burrow. “After five years of destructive austerity and structural adjustment, the IMF and other international lenders should stop their obstructionism, make loan disbursements on the previously agreed extensions and support the Greek people’s efforts to rebuild their economy through policies that give priority to employment creation. We call on the IMF to desist in its mindless attack on workers’ wages, rights and pensions.”
Greek Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis tackle the common fallacy that, “Athens is unable or unwilling – or both – to implement an economic reform program.” Once this fallacy is presented as fact, he argues, it is only natural that coverage highlights how our government is, “squandering the trust and goodwill of its eurozone partners.” But the reality of the talks is very different.
See full article in Project-Syndicate here. Excerpts below.
…. we are uniquely able to maintain the Greek public’s support for a sound economic program. Consider what that means: an independent tax agency; reasonable primary fiscal surpluses forever; a sensible and ambitious privatization program, combined with a development agency that harnesses public assets to create investment flows; genuine pension reform that ensures the social-security system’s long-term sustainability; liberalization of markets for goods and services, etc.
So, if our government is willing to embrace the reforms that our partners expect, why have the negotiations not produced an agreement? Where is the sticking point?
The problem is simple: Greece’s creditors insist on even greater austerity for this year and beyond – an approach that would impede recovery, obstruct growth, worsen the debt-deflationary cycle, and, in the end, erode Greeks’ willingness and ability to see through the reform agenda that the country so desperately needs. Our government cannot – and will not – accept a cure that has proven itself over five long years to be worse than the disease.
Our creditors’ insistence on greater austerity is subtle yet steadfast. It can be found in their demand that Greece maintain unsustainably high primary surpluses (more than 2% of GDP in 2016 and exceeding 2.5%, or even 3%, for every year thereafter). To achieve this, we are supposed to increase the overall burden of value-added tax on the private sector, cut already diminished pensions across the board; and compensate for low privatization proceeds (owing to depressed asset prices) with “equivalent” fiscal consolidation measures.
The view that Greece has not achieved sufficient fiscal consolidation is not just false; it is patently absurd. The accompanying graph not only illustrates this; it also succinctly addresses the question of why Greece has not done as well as, say, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, or Cyprus in the years since the 2008 financial crisis. Relative to the rest of the countries on the eurozone periphery, Greece was subjected to at least twice the austerity. There is nothing more to it than that.
Following Prime Minister David Cameron’s recent election victory in the United Kingdom, my good friend Lord Norman Lamont, a former chancellor of the exchequer, remarked that the UK economy’s recovery supports our government’s position. Back in 2010, he recalled, Greece and the UK faced fiscal deficits of more or less similar size (relative to GDP). Greece returned to primary surpluses (which exclude interest payments) in 2014, whereas the UK government consolidated much more gradually and has yet to return to surplus.
At the same time, Greece has faced monetary contraction (which has recently become monetary asphyxiation), in contrast to the UK, where the Bank of England has supported the government every step of the way. The result is that Greece is continuing to stagnate, whereas the UK has been growing strongly.
Fair-minded observers of the four-month-long negotiations between Greece and its creditors cannot avoid a simple conclusion: The major sticking point, the only deal-breaker, is the creditors’ insistence on even more austerity, even at the expense of the reform agenda that our government is eager to pursue.
Clearly, our creditors’ demand for more austerity has nothing to do with concerns about genuine reform or moving Greece onto a sustainable fiscal path. Their true motivation is a question best left to future historians – who, I have no doubt, will take much of the contemporary media coverage with a grain of salt.
The Greek government via presidential authority has established a Special Committee of the Greek Parliament to investigate the truth about the creation and the increase of the public debt and the Auditing of the Debt (“The Committee on Public Debt”). It is high time the Greek people and the whole world come to know the truth behind how these high levels of debt were incurred, who was responsible and the nature of these debts.
This decision to establish ‘The Committee on Public Debt’ was taken pursuant to Greek laws and regulations and is also in line with Regulation (EU) No. 472/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on the strengthening of economic and budgetary surveillance of Member States in the euro area experiencing or threatened with serious difficulties with respect to their financial stability, as well as the United Nations Guiding Principles on Foreign Debt and Human Rights (A/HRC/20/23) adopted by the Human Rights Council in July 2012.
Paragraph 9 of Article 7 of Regulation (EU) No. 472/2013 enjoins a Member State subject to a macroeconomic adjustment programme to “carry out a comprehensive audits of its public finances in order, inter alia, to assess the reasons that led to the build-up of excessive levels of debt as well as to track any possible irregularity”. The UN Guiding Principles call upon States to undertake periodic audits of their public debts in order to ensure transparency and accountability in the management of their resources and to inform future borrowing decisions.
The overall purpose of the audit to be carried out by the Truth Committee on Public Debt is to examine the nature and extent of the country’s public debt, as well as the processes relating to the contracting and/or accumulation of the debt and the impact of the cuts or changes in the provision of public services, programmes and benefits on the human rights and welfare of all people living in Greece in order to identify what part or proportion of the debt can be defined as illegitimate, illegal, odious or unsustainable. The periods covered are the Memoranda period, i.e. from May 2010 until January 2015, as well as the years 1990 – 2010. The audit is also designed to contribute to transparency and accountability in the management of the country’s public finances, to formulate arguments and requests concerning the cancellation of the debt and to ensure that potential future borrowing decisions are reached on the basis of informed consent.
In order to define the odious, illegitimate, illegal and unsustainable parts of the Greek public debt, the Truth Committee on the Greek Public Debt set up by the President of the Hellenic Parliament will use the definitions that follow. These definitions, based on the doctrine, the jurisprudence, the international treaties, and the general principals of international law, have been adopted with the consensus of the members of the Committee during its second plenary session, which was held from the 4th to the 7th of May 2015 in Athens. As mentioned by the principles of its mission, the Commission will formulate its recommendations with regards to the cancellation of the Greek debt, categorizing it on the basis of these four definitions.
In its report, the Committee will apply the following meanings to key terms described below.
Debt that the borrower cannot be required to repay because the loan, security or guarantee, or the terms and conditions attached to that loan, security or guarantee infringed the law (both national and international) or public policy, or because such terms or conditions were grossly unfair, unreasonable, unconscionable or otherwise objectionable, or because the conditions attached to the loan, security or guarantee included policy prescriptions that violate national laws or human rights standards, or because the loan, security or guarantee was not used for the benefit of the population or the debt was converted from private (commercial) to public debt under pressure to bailout creditors.
Debt in respect of which proper legal procedures (including those relating to authority to sign loans or approval of loans, securities or guarantees by the representative branch or branches of Government of the borrower State) were not followed, or which involved clear misconduct by the lender (including bribery, coercion and undue influence), as well as debt contracted in violation of domestic and international law or had conditions attached thereto that contravened the law or public policy.
Debt, which the lender knew or ought to have known, was incurred in violation of democratic principles (including consent, participation, transparency and accountability), and used against the best interests of the population of the borrower State, or is unconscionable and whose effect is to deny people their fundamental civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights.
Debt that cannot be serviced without seriously impairing the ability or capacity of the Government of the borrower State to fulfil its basic human rights obligations, such as those relating to healthcare, education, water and sanitation and adequate housing, or to invest in public infrastructure and programmes necessary for economic and social development, or without harmful consequences for the population of the borrower State (including a deterioration in the living standards). Such debt is payable but its payment ought to be suspended in order to allow the state to fulfil its human rights commitments.
These three key terms are critical to understanding the nature of the current debt and who is responsible for what part of the Greek public debt.
Statement by the Political Secretariat of SYRIZA on recent political developments and the negotiations between the Greek Government and the Institutions.
Adopted May 14, 2015
From the first moment that this government was established, it became clear – both domestically, and abroad – that the mandate given by the Greek people is binding and constitutes the compass for the negotiations. The “red lines” of the Greek government are also the “red lines” of the Greek people. They express the interests of the workers, self-employed, pensioners, farmers and the youth. They express the need of the country to embark on a new path of development, having at its core social justice and the redistribution of wealth.
The lenders’ persistence on the implementation of the Memorandum program agreed by the Samaras’ government, while creating a stranglehold on the country through increased political pressure and liquidity asphyxiation, comes in direct contrast to the ideal of democracy and popular sovereignty in Europe.
It expresses the obsessive commitment to austerity which deconstructs the social state. The oligarchic direction of European affairs, stipulated in closed rooms in a way that is completely unaffected by the popular will, paves the way for the rise of Extreme Right in Europe.
These demands cannot be accepted. They cannot be accepted by the Greek people who have been struggling hard, for many years, to put an end to the criminal policies of the Memoranda. They cannot be accepted by the European peoples and the progressive social and political forces, that struggle for a Europe of Solidarity and Democracy.
The citizens of Greece and the citizens of Europe are not passive consumers of the 8 o’ clock evening news. On the contrary, we strongly believe that they can be the protagonists in these negotiations which are crucial for our common future in Europe and the world.
SYRIZA will take every initiative needed to inform the Greek society and the European peoples. In every city, every neighborhood, every working place, but also in all countries of Europe, the MPs, the MEPs, the cadres of SYRIZA, along with the members of SYRIZA and every social and political force that stands with us in solidarity, will join in a broad call for mobilization for the victory of democracy and dignity.
Now is the time for the people to join the battle.
We shall win.
The Greek Prime Minister, Mr Alexis Tsipras, addressed a function organised by the UK magazine (The Economist) and gave a keynote speech. He reflected on the gross failure of the economic strategy during the Memorandum period, the new governnment’s considerable achievements during its baptism of fire of 100 days, and comments on what now needs to be done. It is a testament to the capacity of this government that whilst it faces a barrage of hostility from the Euro-elite it has exceeded its revenue targets and contained expenditures to meet all onerous debt repayments on time. But this path is not sustainable, and he calls for realism in accepting past failures and the need to develop out and away from the unending crisis.
The full speech can be found here. Excepts are provided below.
Ladies and gentlemen…
The Memorandum was not just an economic mistake, a bad program, an oversight.
It was a conscious choice to place the burden of the economic crisis caused by the imbalances in the financial system and worsened by the inherent pathologies of the Greek state and the Greek economy, onto the backs of laborers, pensioners, the self-employed middle class and small entrepreneurs.
In reality, the Memorandum was nothing more than an effort to overcome the crisis by enabling an unprecedented liquidation of rights and businesses that would create the basis for a new capital accumulation with significantly worse terms for the social majority.
It was, of course, a given that this policy would lead to an extended recession that was considered desirable initially by the creators of the Memorandum.
They were well aware of what they were doing and despite this fact, they went ahead.
This is the formula of their absolute cynicism.
During the years of the Memorandum, social inequalities in Greece soared – Greece places first on the social inequality index in Europe – unemployment tripled, wages sunk, pensions suffered dramatic cuts and the welfare state literally collapsed.
The only ones who did not sustain damage during this five-year period were the wealthy Greeks.
According to a study by Credit Suisse, 10% of the wealthiest Greeks currently manage at least 56% of the national wealth.
This political and economic storm left only one thing standing: The clientelistic and corrupt state that supported the political and economic elite of this country.
Or to be exact, not only was it left standing, but it also allowed for even worse practices to take root.
None of the alleged Memorandum reforms improved the tax collection mechanism, which is now collapsing despite the eagerness of some enlightened and justifiably nervous employees.
No alleged reform fought the triangle of corruption between the political elite, media owners and Banks.
No reform has improved the functioning and effectiveness of a state that has learned to operate by serving special interests rather than the common good.
It was precisely this situation, namely the inability to justify this extreme policy, the inability to put forward a convincing discourse that would transform the self-serving interests of the elites into the interests of society as a whole, which brought SYRIZA and the anti-memorandum block to power.
Because you can fool many people for a short time and a few people for a long time,
But you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The elections on January 25 gave a clear mandate to this government of social salvation and economic reconstruction: To change the Memorandum policy that destroyed Greek society and brought it to the brink of despair.
The new government has a completely different point of view regarding how the Greek economy and society should be organised.
An entirely different understanding of the preconditions required to achieve sustainable growth that will reduce inequalities, rather than increase them.
Because if growth is simply a continuation of the existing state of affairs, allowing the social gap to remain intact or even exacerbating social divisions, then something is fundamentally wrong with the “kingdom of Europe.”
Therefore, it is this mandate that we have been implementing during the first one hundred days in office, and it is this new point of view that we highlight in the public debate across an ageing Europe.
We are legislating and negotiating in the name of the greater social majority that supports us, and in the name of social justice, growth and the promotion of equality.
Because equality is one of the cornerstones of United Europe that should not be allowed to be eroded by those who insist on speaking only in the name of liberty, forgetting the precondition that makes liberty for all possible:
And what else could this precondition be equality?
We therefore legislate and negotiate, guided by the compass of the interests and aspirations of this social majority: the employees and the middle class that were socially and ethically crushed in the four years of the Memorandum’s assault.
And our goal is to once again construct a version of social justice that will transform Greek and European society from a sum of individuals to a real community.
Our goal is to restore the true meaning of politics in order to achieve our ultimate objective, which we all share:
A sustainable version of social interest that will not create tensions and but will encourage people’s potential by providing the opportunity for well-being.
However, we are legislating and negotiating in an unprecedentedly difficult economic environment.
We are walking through a mine-filled territory prepared by the supporters of the Memorandum from the previous government.
It is common practice for those voted into power to say that they’ve inherited “scorched earth.”
But in our case, this wouldn’t qualify as an exaggeration but rather, as a moderate comment.
We haven’t simply inherited scorched earth.
We’ve inherited a country completely unable to function.
We’ve inherited a country unable to pay wages and pensions just one month after the elections, i.e. in February 2015, and resulting from the previous government.
And yet, we’ve managed to keep the country afloat.
We’ve managed to fully ensure the proper functioning of the responsibilities of the State, while simultaneously engaging in a difficult negotiation.
And despite the financial pressures, our citizens’ confidence has increased, which is why a significant revenue growth in public funds has been recorded.
In the four months that our government has been in office, the primary surplus has reached €2.164 million Euro compared to a primary surplus of €1.046 million Euro for the same period in 2014, and in contrast to a primary deficit forecast of €287 million Euro.
In the month of April alone we increased the net revenues of the ordinary budget by 15.3% against the monthly target.
In doing so, not only did we avoid the previous government’s deliberately set up “crash” scheduled for February, but we also fulfilled the repayment of all internal and external liabilities of the country without risks, despite the fact that no loan instalment has been disbursed since August 2014.
And I want to assure you that there is no threat to salaries and pensions.
There is, however, a major issue here, which I’d characterize as a moral issue.
The agreement has to be finalized, and it should be honest and mutually beneficial.
It is unacceptable for some to think that as time passes the endurance of the Greek side will be tested and that its red lines will fade.
If they have this in mind they should forget about it, as the very opposite will occur.
Since August 2014 we have not received the instalment of 7.2 billion from our lenders, in accordance with the current lending program.
This also includes the 1.9 billion Euro in profits from the central banks that resulted from Greek bonds.
And the 1.2 billion Euro in bonds paid with funds from our budget and that were transferred from the FSF to the ESM.
However, during this time, while we are not receiving the funding that we should be receiving, we have paid instalments of 17.5 billion to the same institutions.
If some believe that this is legal, I can see their point of view.
They will claim that the law is on the lender’s side.
But whoever considers it moral–they are certainly not impartial.
Ladies and gentlemen,
There are several members of the opposition who are deeply frustrated because they cannot express enough political criticism, reproaching us that we have allegedly forgotten our commitments made prior to the elections and that we have back-pedaled on the Thessaloniki Program’s agenda.
Instead of answering, I will summarize what the government has done in the first hundred days, and let the facts speak for themselves:
More specifically therefore:
Within the first one hundred days the government has:
- Taken the first steps in alleviating the humanitarian crisis through the first bill passed by the new Parliament: The program is being implemented on daily basis while being expanded to cover food, housing, electricity.
- Taken immediate steps to restart the economy and restore tax justice: The one hundred installments for the repayment of tax and social security liabilities of citizens are already underway, enabling hundreds of thousands of businesses to readjust their debts and to obtain tax and social security clearance and for thousands of households to escape the choke-hold of over-indebtedness….
- In addition, we voted on a provision, and a Ministerial decision was issued combating triangular trades, which puts an end to one of the most common tax evasion techniques.
- Furthermore, the first law for the democratization of public administration was voted on, which restores some of the blatant injustices that took place during the Memorandum period, such as the dismissal of the cleaners from the Ministry of Finance, the school guards and other public servants.
- The aspects of the program regarding employment recovery have commenced, and continue also through the initiative announced by President Juncker for the disbursement of funds from existing programs, totaling 2 billion Euro.
We are certainly facing difficulties, especially due the ineffective programs designed by the previous government that we are also bound to follow.
However, we will be able to alter and correct these programs in line with our agenda, as planned for the second half of 2015.
- The bill to reopen ERT (the public broadcaster—the Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation) was also voted on, which is a symbolic milestone. We’ve created the conditions for a new public broadcaster free of partisanship, political favors and the wasteful practices of the past. A public information body that will reflect the new public ethos and the democratic political culture of our government.
- We proceeded, as planned, with charging television stations with the operation fees due, more specifically, the matter of unpaid debts that have been pending—unaddressed—for years, while the draft law regarding the stations’ licensing is in the final stage.
- We’re consulting with the International Labour Organization on a bill to be voted on in the coming months, regarding the restoration of the European acquis on labor relations, the restoration of collective bargaining, the post termination effects and the gradual restoration of the minimum wage to 751 Euro….
- The Committee for the review of the Memoranda has commenced with its responsibilities.
- For the first time, the national demand for German reparations has been officially expressed at the highest possible level.
- Tax evasion suspects on the Lagarde list have been summoned to pay and settle their pending tax affairs—a first–while detailed checks are continuing on other cases.
- Special working groups are examining tainted past public agreements, such as the patently unfair out of court settlement between the Greek state and Siemens.
However, we are still just beginning.
We cannot simply forget and move on, doing away in one fell swoop with the negative forces of the past: corruption, poverty and dependence.
At the same time however, we are rigorously negotiating with the lenders on behalf of our people, our country, and for Europe, as well.
In the first days of the negotiation we were faced with the legacy of the Memorandum.
We were faced the requirement to complete the fifth assessment and to implement the commitments that the previous government had undertaken, as laid out in the oft-cited Hardouvelis email.
We demanded respect from our partners; respect for the rules of Europe and for the principle of popular sovereignty that is the cornerstone of the democratic organization of the European Union.
We fought for, and through the February 20 Eurogroup decision we achieved a shift in the attitudes of our lenders–from upholding the Memorandum to the letter, to searching for common ground based on our own priorities.
This is a decision that we respect.
But for a mutually beneficial solution, an agreement must be reached – and not one that leads to the same dead ends – all parties involved should keep this in mind.
The insistence on measures in accordance with the Memorandum, in addition to constant accusations that we are reneging on what was agreed upon with the previous government do not help the ongoing negotiation process.
The Greek government continues to negotiate to achieve a fair, economically and socially viable agreement with our partners.
An agreement that will end austerity, will restore liquidity to the real economy and will provide growth prospects for the country.
- Low primary surpluses, especially for this year and for 2016, in order to stop the mechanism that is furthering austerity and to regain the necessary fiscal space.
- No new wage and pension cuts, i.e. measures that will intensify social inequality.
- Restructuring the public debt in order to end the vicious cycle of the past five years where the country has had to take new loans to repay the existing loans.
- A strong investment program, coordinated financing for investments, especially those regarding infrastructure and new technologies.
At this stage it seems that common ground has been found with the institutions on a number of issues and thus, we are very close to an agreement.
Common ground has been found on issues such as fiscal targets, the marginal VAT changes, which should function in a redistributive manner in favour of the lower classes, and institutional changes to strengthen the tax collection administration.
There are of course issues that remain open: Some are insisting on proposals for changes to the institutional framework that defines the operation of the already deregulated labour market.
These changes cannot be accepted.
The paradox is that while the same forces question the viability of the pension system, the insistence on the Memorandum prerequisites that entail cuts continues.
However, in the following days we must work hard to build the necessary common understanding in terms of the actual amounts of the social security system and ensure that any proposals and estimates will not be based on a false picture of the financial situation of the social security funds.
To be clear, I want to assure the Greek people that there is no probability or possibility of the Greek government backing down on the issue of salaries and pensions.
Employees and pensioners have suffered enough.
The time has come for redistribution, and for the fair sharing of burdens.
Ladies and gentlemen,
We are negotiating with persistence and determination for a single agreement, with uniform prerequisites, that will ensure growth and Greece’s access to the markets within a short time period.
This is the plan we are discussing.
Anything else will be a repetition of failed attempts and deliberate mistakes that some of the institutions have publicly admitted to in the past, in an effort to reduce social tension.
But for these public admissions to be credible, they should also be reflected in practice.
Our government’s negotiating plan is neither radical nor bold nor aggressive.
Our government’s negotiating plan is realistic and viable.
We call on the other side, after five consecutive years of unrealistic targets and continuous failures, to adhere to realism.