Analysis of Recent Election Results

euro ballot paperMore in-depth analysis of the electoral results from the Euro-elections provides a clearer picture of what happened. Political scientist and founder of the public opinion survey company VPRC Christoforos Vernardakis provides a fascinating breakdown of the results of the European elections, showing which social groups favored which political parties.

The ‘electoral reckoning’ of the past two years resulted in the following general outcomes: a.) the electoral victory of a party of the radical left (SYRIZA), a fact of historic significance both for the Greek party system and at the European level, and indeed with a share of the vote almost equal to that obtained in the parliamentary elections, b.) the significant reduction in electoral support of the parties of the coalition government (New Democracy – PASOK/Elia) which fell by a combined 11.5%, a precipitous fall in the two years between elections, c.) the collapse in the support of the third coalition partner of 2012, DIMAR (Democratic Left) a fact which had been established at least a year earlier, d.) the confirmation of the electoral rise of Golden Dawn which is now a basic player in the party system and e.) the relatively disappointing results for parties such as the Independent Greeks, KKE (the Greek Communist Party) and the newly formed ‘center left’ To Potami (The River).

This post was first publised in Greek on RedNotebook.gr and  then translated by The Press Project. The full translated article can be found here

One table from the analysis of exit polls showing how different professional and social groups indicated they voted.

Table 4: Party polling numbers for different professional and social groups

SYRIZA ND GD ELIA POTAMI KKE Ind.
Greeks
Overall 26.6 22.7 9.4 8.0 6.6 6.1 3.5
Employers / Entrepreneurs 8.7 37.4 23.5 9.0 1.0 8.7 4.5
Self employed famers 37,5 22.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 10.0 2.5
Self employed professionals (University Educated) 21.0 22.0 11.0 2.2 7.7 4.4 5.5
Professionals Technicians – Small scale retailers 32.0 12.8 11.2 4.8 7.2 3.2 5.6
Salaried Workers – Public sector 43.5 7.2 2.9 7.2 10.1 5.8 1.4
Salaried Workers – Private sector 21.0 20.0 15.2 6.7 7.6 8.6 1.9
First time unemployed 27.3 9.1 18.2 9.1 15.0 9.0 2.5
Long term unemployed 36.3 12.9 12.9 2.4 5.6 7.3 1.4
Stay-at-home mothers 28.3 24.4 9.4 6.3 3.9 7.1 3.1
Pensioners 20.3 32.1 5.9 13.2 6.8 5.7 3.1
Students 44.0 12.0 0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0

Source: VPRC, Cumulative results of electoral surveys May 2014

As can be seen from the data, there is a major difference in the voting preferences of the unemployed and salaried workers in the public sector on one hand, and workers in the private sector on the other. In the first two categories SYRIZA has a clear advantage. In contrast among the salaried workers in the private sector (note: who are currently employed) New Democracy appears to prevail, while Golden Dawn is also influential.

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